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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
Saturday 2026-01-10 · 16:30 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🌧 Rain Spread -10.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

LA
65.9%
CAR
34.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (LA): +0.252 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CAR defense: +0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

LA 26
–
CAR 19
Projected margin: LA by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

LA

Kevin Dotson G Out Ankle
Jordan Whittington WR Out Knee
Josh Wallace CB Questionable Ankle
Terrance Ferguson TE Questionable Hamstring

CAR

Robert Hunt G Questionable Biceps
Chandler Zavala G Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 34
–
CAR 31

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:39 TD LA (11:39) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – CAR 0
  • Q2 12:21 TD LA (12:21) 12-P.Nacua left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – CAR 0
  • Q2 08:55 TD CAR (8:55) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 14 – CAR 6
  • Q2 05:28 FG LA (5:28) 92-H.Mevis 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 17 – CAR 7
  • Q2 00:44 TD CAR (:44) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 17 – CAR 13
  • Q3 07:34 FG CAR (7:34) 10-R.Fitzgerald 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. LA 17 – CAR 17
  • Q3 04:21 FG LA (4:21) 92-H.Mevis 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 20 – CAR 17
  • Q4 14:38 TD CAR (14:38) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 20 – CAR 23
  • Q4 08:52 TD LA (8:52) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 26 – CAR 24
  • Q4 02:43 TD CAR (2:43) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Verse]. LA 27 – CAR 30
  • Q4 00:43 TD LA (:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 84-C.Parkinson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 33 – CAR 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:32) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 85-J.Mitchell (37-Q.Lake).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:34) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to LA 9, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-X.Smith to LA 7 for -2 yards (27-I.Simmons).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (5:52) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to CAR 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 79%

    (5:28) 92-H.Mevis 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (3:55) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to LA 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-48-T.Incoom.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:56) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to CAR 33, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 23-T.Etienne MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LA-51-T.Reeder at CAR 41.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 92%

    (1:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee (98-D.Wonnum).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 33%

    (:15) 42-E.Evans punts 29 yards to CAR 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:45) 42-E.Evans punts 52 yards to CAR 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 79%

    (7:34) 10-R.Fitzgerald 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 86%

    (4:21) 92-H.Mevis 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 28%

    (2:53) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 30-C.Hubbard.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 76%

    (11:51) 23-K.Williams up the middle to CAR 28 for 2 yards (95-D.Brown; 98-D.Wonnum).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:21) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to LA 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:18) 42-E.Evans punt is BLOCKED by 27-I.Simmons, Center-44-J.McQuaide, recovered by LA-20-R.Rivers at LA 30.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 72 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 15-Ji.Horn.