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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 24

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 92-H.Mevis 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.79 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP