4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 24 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to LA 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.07 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 68, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 26, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model