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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to LA 9, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-X.Smith to LA 7 for -2 yards (27-I.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.55 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model