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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 28

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:28) 92-H.Mevis 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.09 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP