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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 69

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to CAR 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.02 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 69, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP