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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to LA 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-48-T.Incoom.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.78 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 68, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 26, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP