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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 28

Carolina Panthers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 10-R.Fitzgerald 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.48 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP