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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 19

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee (98-D.Wonnum).

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.13 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 19, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.02 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model