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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 55

Carolina Panthers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 85-J.Mitchell (37-Q.Lake).

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.18 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model