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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 30

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 23-K.Williams up the middle to CAR 28 for 2 yards (95-D.Brown; 98-D.Wonnum).

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.99 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model