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Buffalo Bills

12-5 HC Sean McDermott
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Jacksonville Jaguars

13-4 HC Liam Coen
Sunday 2026-01-11 · 13:00 ET TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

BUF
43.2%
JAX
56.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.141 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.246 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • JAX offense: +0.103 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.116 EPA/dropback in prior starts (BUF starting Josh Allen in place of Mitchell Trubisky)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

BUF 22 15–29
–
JAX 25 18–32
Projected margin: JAX by 3 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 19

BUF

Damar Hamlin S Out Pectoral
Josh Palmer WR Out Ankle
Terrel Bernard LB Out Calf
Maxwell Hairston CB Out Ankle
Matt Prater K Questionable Quadricep
Shaq Thompson LB Questionable Neck
Ty Johnson RB Questionable Ankle

JAX

Cole Van Lanen T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 27
–
JAX 24

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:00 FG BUF (3:00) 15-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. BUF 3 – JAX 0
  • Q2 14:18 TD JAX (14:18) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 7-B.Thomas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 3 – JAX 6
  • Q2 05:42 TD BUF (5:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – JAX 7
  • Q3 08:16 FG BUF (8:16) 15-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. BUF 13 – JAX 7
  • Q3 05:52 FG JAX (5:52) 39-C.Little 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. BUF 13 – JAX 10
  • Q4 13:01 TD JAX (13:01) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 11-P.Washington for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-77-A.Harrison was injured during the play. BUF 13 – JAX 16
  • Q4 09:01 TD BUF (9:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 19 – JAX 17
  • Q4 04:10 TD JAX (4:10) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 1-T.Etienne for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 20 – JAX 23
  • Q4 01:05 TD BUF (1:05) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 26 – JAX 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:42) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to BUF 6, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-25-R.Lane.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:58) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to JAX 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 9 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 76%

    (3:00) 15-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 97%

    (11:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence left end to BUF 7 for 2 yards (45-S.Thompson). (Virtual Measurement). Buffalo challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence left end to BUF 8 for 1 yard (45-S.Thompson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:41) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to BUF 28, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds. BUF-14-T.Shavers was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 32%

    (1:14) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to JAX 3, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 81%

    (8:16) 15-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 87%

    (5:52) 39-C.Little 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 20 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:05) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to JAX 38, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 93%

    (9:42) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard to JAX 15 for 4 yards (47-D.Gardeck).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

    (1:10) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle to JAX 1 for 10 yards (26-An.Johnson; 91-A.Armstead).

    See the full breakdown →