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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 19

Buffalo Bills 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard to JAX 15 for 4 yards (47-D.Gardeck).

The Three Options

GO +2.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.71 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 19, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model