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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Buffalo Bills
4th & 9 at the 50
Buffalo Bills 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7
What Actually Happened
(1:14) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to JAX 3, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.96 EP
-
35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +1.90 EP
- 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 50, worth -2.48 EP
KICK
-1.18 EP
- 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
- 68% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT
-0.49 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.49 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
