4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 9

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(11:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence left end to BUF 7 for 2 yards (45-S.Thompson). (Virtual Measurement). Buffalo challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence left end to BUF 8 for 1 yard (45-S.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO +3.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.58 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 9, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model