Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 20 at the 79

Buffalo Bills 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

(4:05) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to JAX 38, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.95 EP
74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 79, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model