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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 11

Buffalo Bills 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen up the middle to JAX 1 for 10 yards (26-An.Johnson; 91-A.Armstead).

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +3.65 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model