SF @ PHI — 4th & Data

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Philadelphia Eagles

11-6 HC Nick Sirianni

Sunday 2026-01-11 · 16:30 ET Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

50.4%

PHI

49.6%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

SF offense: +0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
PHI offense: -0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
PHI defense: -0.143 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
SF defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
Wind 22 mph
QB edge to SF: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.105 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.175 EPA/dropback (PHI starting Jalen Hurts in place of Tanner McKee)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

SF 22 15–29

–

PHI 21 14–28

Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 19

SF

Trent Williams T Questionable Hamstring

Luke Gifford LB Questionable Quadricep

Dee Winters LB Questionable Ankle

Keion White DE Questionable Groin

Renardo Green CB Questionable Ankle

Jacob Cowing WR Questionable Hamstring

Ricky Pearsall WR Questionable Knee

PHI

Lane Johnson T Questionable Foot

Brett Toth G Questionable Concussion

Azeez Ojulari LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 23

–

PHI 19

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 11:54 TD SF (11:54) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 5-D.Robinson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – PHI 0
Q1 06:20 TD PHI (6:20) (No Huddle) 88-D.Goedert left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – PHI 6
Q2 06:13 TD PHI (6:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – PHI 12
Q2 02:54 FG SF (2:54) 18-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 10 – PHI 13
Q3 02:15 FG PHI (2:15) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann. SF 10 – PHI 16
Q4 15:00 TD SF (15:00) 15-J.Jennings pass deep right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-98-J.Carter, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs. SF 16 – PHI 16
Q4 08:04 FG PHI (8:04) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann. SF 17 – PHI 19
Q4 02:59 TD SF (2:59) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 23 – PHI 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP

p(convert) 56%

(5:08) 7-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to PHI 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 48

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 60% p(FG) 24%

(1:33) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 6-D.Smith (20-U.Stout).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 49

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 22%

(:18) 7-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to PHI 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-36-M.Sigle.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 57

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 72%

(11:24) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 46 for 3 yards (95-A.Collins).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 9

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

(6:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 18

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP

p(convert) 57% p(FG) 92%

(2:54) 18-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(2:02) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to SF 21, impetus ends at SF 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 9-S.Moore to SF 23 for 2 yards (42-S.Mondon).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 63

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP

p(convert) 55%

(13:37) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to SF 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 PHI 4th & 14 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(8:25) 10-B.Mann punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(7:32) 7-T.Morstead punts 25 yards to SF 46, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-41-J.Graham.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 23

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 86%

(2:15) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 PHI 4th & 13 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(13:25) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to SF 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 9-S.Moore MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 21. 9-S.Moore to SF 31 for 10 yards (54-J.Trotter).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 15

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 94%

(8:04) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 60 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(2:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to SF 45 for 15 yards (6-M.Mustapha).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 PHI 4th & 11 at the 21 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.16 EP

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 88%

(:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert (43-E.Kendricks).
See the full breakdown →

San Francisco 49ers