Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 64

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(2:02) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to SF 21, impetus ends at SF 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 9-S.Moore to SF 23 for 2 yards (42-S.Mondon).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.38 EP
63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model