Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 60

Philadelphia Eagles 19 – San Francisco 49ers 23

(2:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to SF 45 for 15 yards (6-M.Mustapha).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP

What Happened

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.53 EP
54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model