4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 49

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

What Actually Happened

(:18) 7-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to PHI 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-36-M.Sigle.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.87 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -2.02 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model