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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 21

Philadelphia Eagles 19 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert (43-E.Kendricks).

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.02 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.16 EP