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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 63

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 10-B.Mann punts 58 yards to SF 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.36 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP