Value Picks — Week 7

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

MIA @ CLE Disagrees with the line

Model: MIA 58.7% Line: CLE 57.3% 16.0-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ LAC Disagrees with the line

Model: IND 58.5% Line: LAC 57.3% 15.8-pt gap vs. the line

TB @ DET

Model: DET 54.6% Line: DET 67.2% 12.6-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ ARI

Model: GB 59.0% Line: GB 69.8% 10.8-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ DAL Disagrees with the line

Model: WAS 55.3% Line: DAL 54.4% 9.7-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ KC

Model: KC 75.0% Line: KC 84.1% 9.1-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ SEA

Model: SEA 50.6% Line: SEA 58.8% 8.2-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ NYJ Disagrees with the line

Model: CAR 52.8% Line: NYJ 54.4% 7.2-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ JAX

Model: LA 62.7% Line: LA 58.8% 3.9-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ TEN

Model: NE 72.2% Line: NE 68.5% 3.7-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ CIN

Model: PIT 63.8% Line: PIT 65.8% 2.0-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ DEN

Model: DEN 72.9% Line: DEN 71.1% 1.8-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ CHI

Model: CHI 61.9% Line: CHI 63.1% 1.2-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ MIN

Model: PHI 58.1% Line: PHI 57.3% 0.8-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ SF

Model: SF 54.7% Line: SF 54.4% 0.3-pt gap vs. the line