Value Picks — Week 7

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

MIA @ CLE Disagrees with the line

Model: MIA 61.5% Line: CLE 57.3% 18.8-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ ARI

Model: GB 52.9% Line: GB 69.8% 16.9-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ KC

Model: KC 70.5% Line: KC 84.1% 13.6-pt gap vs. the line

TB @ DET

Model: DET 54.6% Line: DET 67.2% 12.6-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ LAC Disagrees with the line

Model: IND 54.7% Line: LAC 57.3% 12.0-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ CIN

Model: PIT 58.3% Line: PIT 65.8% 7.5-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ DAL Disagrees with the line

Model: WAS 52.7% Line: DAL 54.4% 7.1-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ NYJ Disagrees with the line

Model: CAR 51.6% Line: NYJ 54.4% 6.0-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ SF

Model: SF 51.8% Line: SF 54.4% 2.6-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ SEA

Model: SEA 57.1% Line: SEA 58.8% 1.7-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ MIN

Model: PHI 56.0% Line: PHI 57.3% 1.3-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ JAX

Model: LA 58.1% Line: LA 58.8% 0.7-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ CHI

Model: CHI 63.8% Line: CHI 63.1% 0.7-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ TEN

Model: NE 69.0% Line: NE 68.5% 0.5-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ DEN

Model: DEN 70.8% Line: DEN 71.1% 0.3-pt gap vs. the line