4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
WAS Away

Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Brian Schottenheimer
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.5 O/U 54.5

Win Probability

WAS
52.7%
DAL
47.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.213 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.144 vs Jayden Daniels (WAS) +0.126 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

WAS 27
–
DAL 25
Projected margin: WAS by 2 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

WAS

Terry McLaurin WR Out Quadricep
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR Out Heel
Zach Ertz TE Questionable Shoulder
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Hamstring
Dorance Armstrong DE Questionable Hamstring
Sam Cosmi G Questionable Knee

DAL

Trevon Diggs CB Out Knee
Trevor Keegan G Out Neck
Juanyeh Thomas S Questionable Illness
Mazi Smith DT Questionable Ankle
Jonathan Mingo WR Questionable Knee
Caelen Carson CB Questionable Knee
Marshawn Kneeland DE Questionable Ankle
Ajani Cornelius T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 22
–
DAL 44

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:08 TD DAL (13:08) 33-J.Williams right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – DAL 6
  • Q1 11:35 SAF WAS (11:35) 33-J.Williams up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (94-D.Payne, 55-J.Martin). WAS 2 – DAL 7
  • Q1 07:44 TD WAS (7:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 8 – DAL 7
  • Q1 06:19 FG DAL (6:19) 17-B.Aubrey 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. WAS 8 – DAL 10
  • Q1 04:38 TD DAL (4:38) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 8 – DAL 16
  • Q2 07:27 FG DAL (7:27) 17-B.Aubrey 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. WAS 8 – DAL 20
  • Q2 00:49 TD WAS (:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 14 – DAL 20
  • Q2 00:15 TD DAL (:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 15 – DAL 26
  • Q3 07:48 TD DAL (7:48) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 15 – DAL 33
  • Q3 05:46 TD DAL (5:46) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right intended for 26-J.McNichols INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bland [13-D.Fowler] at DAL 32. 26-D.Bland for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 15 – DAL 40
  • Q3 02:39 TD WAS (2:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 36-C.Rodriguez left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL-95-K.Clark was injured during the play. WAS 21 – DAL 41
  • Q4 12:48 FG DAL (12:48) 17-B.Aubrey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. WAS 22 – DAL 44

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (11:46) 10-T.Way punts 58 yards to DAL 1, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-35-P.Butler.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 84%

    (6:19) 17-B.Aubrey 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 77%

    (4:48) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to DAL 22, Center-69-T.Ott. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 26 for 4 yards (18-T.Owens).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 30%

    (2:14) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:17) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to WAS 10, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 47%

    (10:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 86-Z.Ertz (14-M.Bell). Penalty on WAS-72-J.Conerly, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 12 at the 43
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 55%

    (7:27) 17-B.Aubrey 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:40) 10-T.Way punts 60 yards to DAL 27, Center-69-T.Ott. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 27 for no gain (35-P.Butler).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:05) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to WAS 24, Center-44-T.Sieg. 83-J.Lane to WAS 32 for 8 yards (43-M.Davis).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (12:48) 17-B.Aubrey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 71%

    (10:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 11-L.McCaffrey.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 39%

    (6:57) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to WAS 8, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 12 at the 94 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:45) 10-T.Way punts 59 yards to DAL 35, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-35-P.Butler. PENALTY on DAL-21-C.Carson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 35.