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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 29

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Washington Commanders 8

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 17-B.Aubrey 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.57 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT +0.65 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP