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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 87

Washington Commanders 8 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 10-T.Way punts 60 yards to DAL 27, Center-69-T.Ott. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 27 for no gain (35-P.Butler).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.52 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 87, worth -5.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 45, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model