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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 12 at the 43
Dallas Cowboys 17 – Washington Commanders 8
What Actually Happened
(7:27) 17-B.Aubrey 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
The Three Options
GO
+0.01 EP
Model's Pick
-
33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.92 EP
- 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -1.90 EP
KICK
-0.21 EP
What Happened
- 55% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
- 45% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT
-0.38 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.38 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
