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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 53

Washington Commanders 8 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.36 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 53, worth -3.05 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP