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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 36

Washington Commanders 22 – Dallas Cowboys 44

What Actually Happened

(10:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 11-L.McCaffrey.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.66 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model