4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 59

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 10-T.Way punts 58 yards to DAL 1, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-35-P.Butler.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.18 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 59, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 18, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model