Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 62

Dallas Cowboys 20 – Washington Commanders 8

(2:05) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to WAS 24, Center-44-T.Sieg. 83-J.Lane to WAS 32 for 8 yards (43-M.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.51 EP
64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model