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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 49

Dallas Cowboys 44 – Washington Commanders 22

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to WAS 8, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.26 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model