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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Liam Coen
Sunday 2025-10-19 · 09:30 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

LA
58.1%
JAX
41.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • LA offense: +0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (LA): +0.185 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 24
–
JAX 22
Projected margin: LA by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

LA

Rob Havenstein T Out Ankle
Puka Nacua WR Out Ankle

JAX

Quintin Morris TE Out Groin
Devin Lloyd LB Out Calf

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 35
–
JAX 7

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:43 TD LA (6:43) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 15-K.Mumpfield for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – JAX 0
  • Q1 01:55 TD LA (1:55) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – JAX 0
  • Q2 04:40 TD LA (4:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-6-G.Newsome, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. LA 20 – JAX 0
  • Q4 11:19 TD LA (11:19) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 18-T.Ferguson for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 27 – JAX 0
  • Q4 09:13 TD JAX (9:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 12-T.Hunter for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-37-Q.Lake, Illegal Contact, declined. LA 28 – JAX 6
  • Q4 05:03 TD LA (5:03) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 34 – JAX 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 27 yards to LA 40, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 94%

    (8:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams ran ob at JAX 7 for 9 yards (30-M.Brown).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 13 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:12) 9-L.Cooke punts 62 yards to LA 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at LA 21 for 13 yards (56-Y.Abdullah).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 39%

    (13:15) (No Huddle) 11-P.Washington right end to LA 43 for 3 yards (1-E.Forbes).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 42%

    (11:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 36 yards to LA 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:15) 42-E.Evans punts 53 yards to JAX 38, Center-47-A.Ward. 11-P.Washington for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on JAX-22-J.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 40.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 75%

    (7:02) 39-C.Little 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (1:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left tackle to LA 7 for 4 yards (8-J.Verse; 31-D.Williams).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:57) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to JAX 17, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 78%

    (10:41) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 5-D.Brown.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 25%

    (8:17) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to JAX 9, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 84%

    (5:38) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 12-T.Hunter [0-B.Young].

  • Q3 LA 4th & 11 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:53) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to JAX 26, Center-47-A.Ward. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 43 for 17 yards (51-T.Reeder).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (1:05) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to JAX 21, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-25-T.Brown.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 15 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to LA 38, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-X.Smith to LA 38 for no gain (22-J.Jones).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 77%

    (11:19) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 18-T.Ferguson for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 60%

    (3:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 12-T.Hunter to LA 22 for 16 yards (3-K.Curl) [91-K.Turner].

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 13 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 5-D.Brown (3-K.Curl).