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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 14

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Los Angeles Rams 35

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 5-D.Brown (3-K.Curl).

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +5.90 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 14, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EP