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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 27 yards to LA 40, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.70 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model