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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 78

Los Angeles Rams 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to JAX 21, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-25-T.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.86 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 78, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 35, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model