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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 11

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(1:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left tackle to LA 7 for 4 yards (8-J.Verse; 31-D.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.87 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model