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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 91

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 42-E.Evans punts 53 yards to JAX 38, Center-47-A.Ward. 11-P.Washington for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on JAX-22-J.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.83 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 91, worth -5.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.98 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 48, worth -2.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model