4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 32

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 39-C.Little 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.20 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP