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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 1 at the 31
Los Angeles Rams 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0
What Actually Happened
(11:19) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 18-T.Ferguson for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+2.17 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.82 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -1.49 EP
KICK
+0.67 EP
- 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
- 23% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT
-0.35 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
