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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Monday 2025-10-20 · 19:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 54.5

Win Probability

TB
45.4%
DET
54.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.310 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.298 EPA/dropback
  • DET defense: +0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 26
–
DET 27
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 53

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

TB

Chris Godwin Jr. WR Out Fibula
Luke Haggard G Out Shoulder
Bucky Irving RB Out Foot
Josh Williams RB Out Concussion
Lavonte David LB Questionable Knee
Teddy Bridgewater QB Questionable Illness
Mike Evans WR Questionable Hamstring
Emeka Egbuka WR Questionable Hamstring

DET

Avonte Maddox CB Out Hamstring
Kerby Joseph S Out Knee
Sione Vaki RB Out Groin
Terrion Arnold CB Out Shoulder
Taylor Decker T Questionable Shoulder
DJ Reader DT Questionable Back
Alim McNeill DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 9
–
DET 24

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:06 TD DET (12:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – DET 6
  • Q2 06:01 TD DET (6:01) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – DET 13
  • Q2 00:04 FG TB (:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. TB 3 – DET 14
  • Q3 08:58 TD TB (8:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-T.Johnson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – DET 14
  • Q3 04:44 TD DET (4:44) (No Huddle) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – DET 20
  • Q4 10:23 FG DET (10:23) 39-J.Bates 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. TB 9 – DET 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (9:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to DET 35, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:15) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to DET 14, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 96%

    (:46) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 18-I.TeSlaa.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 30%

    (13:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to DET 14, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 17 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:18) 3-J.Fox punts 52 yards to TB 26, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-K.Johnson to TB 36 for 10 yards (49-H.Hatten; 15-G.Stuard).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 37%

    (7:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to DET 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 11 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to DET 14, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 15 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:06) 3-J.Fox punts 66 yards to TB 25, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-K.Johnson to TB 38 for 13 yards (53-T.Nowaske).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 71%

    (1:56) 39-J.Bates 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 85%

    (10:21) 65-D.Feeney reported in as eligible. 1-R.White left tackle to DET 24 for 4 yards (51-R.Lopez; 46-J.Campbell).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (2:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to DET 25, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds. PENALTY on TB-32-J.Hayes, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at DET 25.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 37%

    (15:00) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs right end pushed ob at TB 49 for 1 yard (96-G.Gaines; 31-A.Winfield).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 50%

    (13:12) 3-J.Fox punts 34 yards to TB 11, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (11:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to TB 41 for 4 yards (34-A.Anzalone). Detroit challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to TB 40 for 3 yards (34-A.Anzalone).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 62%

    (10:23) 39-J.Bates 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 84%

    (7:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton to DET 22 for 7 yards (34-A.Anzalone).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 12 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (4:29) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 2-E.Egbuka (38-N.Whiteside).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 85 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:10) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to TB 22, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-K.Johnson to TB 33 for 11 yards (53-T.Nowaske).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:19) 3-J.Fox punts 41 yards to TB 21, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.