Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Detroit Lions 7

(6:15) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to DET 14, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.43 EP
61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 59, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model