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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 65-D.Feeney reported in as eligible. 1-R.White left tackle to DET 24 for 4 yards (51-R.Lopez; 46-J.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.26 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model