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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 29

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(7:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton to DET 22 for 7 yards (34-A.Anzalone).

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.36 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 29, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 39, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model