Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 78

Detroit Lions 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(10:18) 3-J.Fox punts 52 yards to TB 26, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-K.Johnson to TB 36 for 10 yards (49-H.Hatten; 15-G.Stuard).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.31 EP
69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model