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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 85

Detroit Lions 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to TB 22, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-K.Johnson to TB 33 for 11 yards (53-T.Nowaske).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.21 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 43, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model