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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 50

Detroit Lions 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs right end pushed ob at TB 49 for 1 yard (96-G.Gaines; 31-A.Winfield).

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.75 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model