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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(4:29) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 2-E.Egbuka (38-N.Whiteside).

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.78 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 12, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model