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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 66

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to DET 14, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.09 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 24, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model